Never before have global risks seemed so complex, the stakes so high, and the need for international co-operation to deal with them so apparent. That is according to a recent report titled Global shocks by the international body the (OECD, www.oecd.org).
UK input into the internationally-authored report came from the Civil Contingencies Secretariat at the Cabinet Office in Downing Street.
As the report says: โOECD countries have suffered major international terrorist attacks in 2001, 2003 and 2005, unprecedented destruction during hurricane Katrina in 2005, the worldwide financial meltdown in 2008 that reshaped and expanded the number of key constituents of global economic governance, the first declared pandemic in over 40 years in 2009, and most recently the Tohuku earthquakes, tsunami and ensuing nuclear reactor accidents at the Fukushima power plant.โ
The report risk-assesses some possible shocks, such as pandemics, financial crises and cyber-crime; and what tools there are to map and model such risks. The report looks at how there might be early warning and emergency management of such crises, and whether there can be international co-operation. On that point, the report sums up: โEffective emergency management of global shocks requires the availability of adequate countermeasures (e.g. medical, technological and financial solutions); the mobilisation of significant reserve and surge capacity (e.g. energy, food, water and first responders); rapid
delivery of countermeasures and reserves for maximum effect; and broad deployment across multiple jurisdictions.โ
The report also goes on:
The awareness of risk management in government and the private sector has risen dramatically in recent years. Large-scale disasters have been recognised as challenges to public policy, usually at the national or regional level. The concept of โglobal shocksโ takes account of a different pattern of risk: cascading risks that become active threats as they spread across global systems, whether these arise in health, climate, social or financial systems. Little work has been done on risks present in large-scale system interdependencies and the propagation of risks across global systems. Among the more important findings of this work for public policy is recognition that surveillance has now emerged as a key component in risk assessment and management. New knowledge management tools, modelling and data arrays provide unprecedented opportunities for anticipating some important global threats, and are increasingly sought by public policy managers worldwide. Secondly, there is a heightened role for security agencies in collaboration with regulatory agencies to use, adapt and implement risk-assessment tools in designing more resilient systems at the national and international levels. This report contributes directly to highlighting these new trends.
To read the 139-page report, download from the OECD website –
