How difficult it is to predict anything about what the world might look like in another 40 years! Mark Rowe, editor of Professional Security Magazine writes.
You only have to think how the world looked in 1971 compared with 2011. The number one risk was the Soviet Union, which doesn’t even exist. No end of assets that need protecting today – computers, digital data – likewise were yet to be invented. Many of the things we use at work and home without a second thought would have been like magic to someone in ’71. Goodness knows what the world will be like in 2051.
That said, some things remain surprisingly the same. To give three examples: a fear that crime was on the rise; a sense that young people and other activists were turning to extremes to make protests; and terrorism. These were issues in 1971 as much as 2011. Only the topics and the personnel change. Assets that need protecting change, so does the technology to protect those assets. Asset protection remains.
So, rather than predict, I would rather ask questions. Technology has for hundreds of years made men more productive, but put people out of work. In private security, alarm monitoring centres can direct security officers in vans to incidents. That can give a quicker security response by fewer and better trained security people. Will there be enough jobs to go around, in the 21st century? If in 2051 Britain is as prosperous as it is in 2011 and was in 1971, can we bring up new generations with a sense of right and wrong, and to appreciate that crime does not pay? The world of 2011 is digital whereas the world of 1971 was analogue; data was on tape or card or paper. You could put data in 1971 in a safe or a locked desk. How do you secure your data when – as the recent Wikileaks affair showed – enormous amounts of confidential data can go on a stick or disc that fits in your pocket? How can retailers and the creative industries protect their profits, from counterfeiters and copiers? If the answer is to tag things, or to make more use of ever-cheaper and deployable CCTV, where does the balance lie between personal privacy and community safety? What if science comes up with a lie detector? Or robots, to search cargo? What if robots become intelligent enough to open doors for authorised people and to deny access to the unauthorised? What if one day they decide that they know best (as in the film I, Robot)? You may ask how you or your company can shape that future, or whether everyone is at the mercy of science and greater commercial forces. I welcome the chance to write this, and thank you for reading this far, because only by – sometimes – thinking about where we have been and where we are going, can we better kit ourselves out for the journey. And travel with some sort of a map.
