Despite the annual number of homicides registered worldwide reaching a peak in 2021, the long-term trend in the homicide rate is one of gradual decline, according to the Global Study on Homicide 2023 from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).
Although the authors for the UN urge caution about the quality of data globally, they point to a noticeable decrease in the homicide rate over the past two decades, from 6.9 homicides per 100,000 in 2000 to 5.8 in 2021, let alone over previous centuries. The number of murders per year globally so far this century has been about 430,000.
In 2021, homicide rates were highest in the Americas faced a higher risk of intentional killings than any other region, with an estimated rate of 15.0 homicide victims per 100,000 population, compared with rates in Africa (12.7), Oceania (2.9), Asia (2.3) and Europe (2.2). The year 2021 did represent an increase, partly linked to the economic repercussions of covid-19-related restrictions; and in some countries such as in the Caribbean a rise in ‘crime and trafficking, access to firearms and ammunition and the expansion and fragmentation of gangs seeking to control territory’. In 2021, eight of the ten countries with the highest homicide rates in the world were in Latin America and the Caribbean. The report points to access to and misuse of firearms: “Unlike bladed weapons and blunt objects, firearms escalate the speed and scale of intentional and unintentional homicides.” Nearly 40 per cent of global homicides are connected to crime, mainly organised crime and gang-related violence. From 2015 to 2021, organised crime caused around 700,000 deaths, comparable to casualties resulting from armed conflicts.
Europe has seen a modest decline in its murder rate over the last decade. In western Europe, the highest national homicide rate in 2021 (France) was about double the lowest (Switzerland).
The document makes projections of homicide to 2100 that reflect three selected mega-trends: (1) future demographic structures; (2) the impact of climate change; and (3) changing income inequalities. Ageing populations reduce risk of homicide but a large youth population can lead to a short-term increase. Across most settings, young males aged 15 to 29 account for a disproportionate share of offenders; and the percentage of young people is projected to fall on all the main six, inhabited continents between now and 2100.
As for climate, the authors suggest that the homicide rate may increase in all the regions, especially Africa and the Americas, due to more hot days. The report suggests, ‘resource scarcity and climate change have been linked to outbursts of violence and conflict by acting as “threat multipliers” that interact with other risk factors and drivers, such as weak governance structures and poverty, contributing to the outbreak and perpetuation of violence’. The report says: “The increase in the number of hot days is projected to be most extreme in Africa, where two months in every year could be dangerously hot by 2100. By contrast, Europe (based on the average of all the countries in the region grouped together) will most likely never experience extreme hot temperatures. Thirdly, the report sees the highest homicide risks as likely to occur in parts of Africa and Asia yet to undergo rapid urbanisation and with few safeguards and support networks for residents.”
As for tech, the report argues that ‘digital transformation’ and automation could increase risk of homicide. The report says that digital coercion of homicide victims is more likely to occur. “Likewise, the online environment can stimulate heightened aggression and argument escalation, facilitate monitoring and relationships with prospective victims, and allow for impersonation and anonymity.”
Ghada Waly, Executive Director of UNODC, said: “Every year, we witness the loss of thousands of lives to homicide – a sombre reminder of our collective failure to fulfil the promise of the Sustainable Development Goals to significantly reduce all forms of violence by 2030. The complex web of factors fuelling homicide deaths worldwide, from gender-based violence against women and girls, to organized crime and gang violence, to poverty and inequality, shows that there is no one-size-fits-all approach. I hope that this new Global Study will help inform evidence-based, preventive policies and responses, to address the root causes of this violence and save human lives.”
