A likely security crisis over Taiwan, escalating tensions between China and the US, and a prolonged conflict in Ukraine are among forecasts in the ninth annual Strategic Outlook from the security intelligence consultancy Dragonfly. Together they paint a picture of an increasingly volatile world that is seeing the erosion of its existing systems of global cooperation and governance.
The document has some 520 thematic and regional forecasts. Besides geopolitics, it coves cyber, climate activism, and corporate and other security risks. It provides leaders and risk specialists with detailed scenarios with warning indicators for 15 geopolitical flash-points, key monitoring points and dates, and interactive risk dashboards to inform executive business decisions. The firm recalls its last year’s forecast which warned that the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine was high, nearly three months before it occurred in February, against the grain of thinking at the time. This allowed some clients to have adequate time to plan evacuations and take action pre-invasion, the firm notes.
Dragonfly’s specialists assess that the geopolitical risk of greatest consequence to the global order in 2023 is the prospect of a security crisis in the Taiwan Strait. Although an invasion is highly unlikely, a security crisis such as a naval blockade is increasingly probable. This would cause numerous supply chain and inflationary pressures that would further a ‘global unravelling’, and potentially turn it into a near virtual collapse of the global order.
Some of the other trends and forecasts for 2023 include:
– President Vladimir Putin’s unpopular mobilisation is likely to fail to reverse Russia’s fortunes in the Ukraine conflict, and why the likely consequence is to prolong the conflict indefinitely, while escalating the diplomatic and economic pressure on Europe and Ukraine;
– US-China relations are likely to deteriorate even further, with it being likely that US authorities introduce further barriers to high-tech firms doing business in China to try and delay Chinese self-sufficiency;
– It’s likely that there will be a further deterioration in relations on the Korean peninsula in 2023; this is more likely than not to result in Pyongyang restarting its testing of nuclear weapons, prompting live-fire exercise by South Korea and the US; and
– United States Federal Reserve hikes are a key risk driver in Latin America, with any default on loan repayments to the US probably being a precursor to serious economic crises in the region
Henry Wilkinson, Chief Intelligence Officer at Dragonfly, says: “The systems, institutions, and orders that have underpinned relative global stability and security for decades are unravelling and taking new forms. Strategic Outlook 2023 provides our latest assessment of persistent volatility as the world rapidly adapts to changes and challenges shaped by war, great power competition, and economic turmoil.”
And David Claridge, Chief Executive Officer of Dragonfly, pictured, says: “At a time where forecasting political risks is especially crucial to sustain business operations, Strategic Outlook 2023 allows the world’s leading organisations and decision makers to anticipate threats and plan how they will react to them with confidence.”
About the firm
Dragonfly (so named for the insect’s 360 vision) has offices in London, New York, Washington, DC and Singapore. Visit www.dragonflyintelligence.com.
