Economic, climate and security threats have persistently mounted throughout 2023, according to a risk intelligence consultancy in its mid-year report.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains the most obvious point of global tensions, says Justin Crump, Sibylline CEO, pictured. He points to the events of June 23 and 24 highlighting the underlying weakness of Moscow’s position (despite much bluster and various attempts to ‘patch over’ the situation). “The full consequences of the Wagner leader Prigozhin’s mutiny remain to be seen, though it is unlikely that this episode is over. Meanwhile, Western support will likely be emboldened ahead of the NATO summit in Vilnius, while Kyiv continues to press hard on the battlefield. Yet Russia, backed into a corner, will possibly become more threatening, and so the risks of escalation will continue to mount. This may lead to an increase in cyber activity targeting businesses, additional forms of espionage, an increase in the ongoing threats to sub-sea cables and even the spectre of radiological release on the battlefield, the ramifications of which would impact many neighbouring countries.
“However, this focus on Ukraine must not serve to diminish the impact of other growing challenges, particularly in Europe, the UK and the US. Persistent economic and political weakness is hampering clear strategic decision-making, and exceptional unity over Ukraine is not being replicated in other spheres. The impacts of our changing climate are also currently being highlighted by an emerging warm weather cycle, with natural disasters likely to expand in intensity and frequency. These will continue to drive long-term shifts in the global landscape, leading to hardship and misery for many. Threat actors will continue to exploit large-scale civil disruption, further exacerbating volatility. Tensions between the US and China, as well as the shifting nature of once-established alliances and rivalries more broadly, are also increasing uncertainty and testing the operations of global businesses and institutions.
“The possibilities – and challenges – presented by emerging technology are also now in sharp focus. For example, the rise of AI is already affecting a plethora of facets related to how we live and operate. As is always the case, malicious actors are exploiting associated opportunities, and it is clear that regulation and governance at a global level will not be able to keep up with these emerging threats. More widely, these technical shifts will likely result in whole-sale economic changes which could further disenfranchise large entities. After all, progress is rarely smooth, especially at the current pace of change.
“Amid these dynamics, it is unsurprising that business leaders are placing increased emphasis on actionable insight to help them navigate such uncertain times. In numerous recent surveys, chief security officers and global boards emphasised their pressing need for intelligence to make sense of events and to get ahead of crises – in other words, pre-empting, not just responding. For years, resilience has not been honoured by corporate leaders under pressure to show results and demonstrate efficiency; yet in the face of the challenges of this decade, avoiding hazards requires the sort of agility and thinking that comes only from acquiring a clear understanding of the global context and a deep awareness of the specific ‘so whats’.”
The company’s mid-year forecast covers the world by regions, and cyber risks. Visit https://www.sibylline.co.uk/mid-year-2023-launch-request/.
The consultancy’s December launch in London of its 2023 forecast was featured in the January print edition of Professional Security Magazine.
