Expect moderate growth in the UK manned security market according to a report by Market & Business Development (MBD).
In 2007, demand for manned security services increased by an estimated 6pc to £3231 million, partly reflecting the continuing threat of terrorism and increasing levels of crime and disorder. Overall, the market is believed to have increased by 24pc between 2003 and the latest year.
Market forecast
The value of the UK manned security market is projected to increase throughout the forecast
period, albeit at moderate annual levels. In 2012, demand is anticipated to reach £3663 million (at 2007 prices), representing a real term increase of 3pc in the year and of 13pc compared with the latest year of the review period. Market growth is expected to be driven by strong developments in the custodial services and CIT services sectors. However, growth is projected to be modest in the manned guarding sector, largely reflecting increased costs rather than volume sales. Margins, tight in recent years following the introduction of licensing, are expected to continue to improve in the medium term, although competitive pricing is anticipated to remain a feature of the market.
Further, a stronger market development is expected to be restricted by increased substitution of manned security by electronic security.
Sector anticipation
Demand for manned guarding is anticipated to increase throughout the review period, though annual growth levels are not expected to exceed 2pc. Between 2007 and 2012, the value of the
sector is projected to increase by a cumulative 7pc, reaching £2169m (at 2007 prices).
Nonetheless, if the Private Security Industry Act is extended to include in-house guards, value
growth is likely to be stronger, although largely reflecting increased training costs which, at least some, will be passed on to the client. Although the sector is expected to show real term growth during the forecast period, the importance of manned guarding to the total manned security market is projected to contract from 62pc in 2008 to 59pc in the latter year under review, reflecting continued competition from electronic monitoring.
Cash In Transit sector
The importance of the CIT sector is expected to increase moderately from 26pc in 2008 to 28pc in 2012. In the latter year, the value of the sector is projected to increase by 4pc in real terms to
£1011m (at 2007 prices), representing overall cumulative growth of 22pc compared with 2007. Continued growth in the sector partly reflects the ongoing trend towards outsourcing by financial institutions and retailers, with the projected increase in the number of ATMs, particularly at non-branch based sites.
Custodial services sector
The value of the custodial services sector is projected to see year-on-year real term growth between 2007 and 2012, culminating in an overall increase of 30pc to £484m in the latter year. Anticipated growth is largely a reflection of the trend of outsourcing in public sector prisons, with the rising prison population. Moreover, the importance of the custodial sector is projected to increase moderately to 13pc by 2012.
The UK Manned Security Market Development Report is available from MBD. Price: £600. If you require a full review copy of the report, please contact MBD at 5 Oxford Court, Manchester M2 3WQ
Tel: 0161 236 6845. Fax: 0161 236 5849. E-mail:[email protected]
