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Violence falls: but why?

by Mark Rowe

Numbers of people injured in serious violence dropped by 12 per cent in 2013 compared to 2012, according to an England and Wales study by Cardiff University. Overall, an estimated 234,509 people attended Emergency Departments (EDs), Minor Injury Units (MIUs) and Walk-in Centres in England and Wales for treatment following violence in 2013. That’s 32,780 fewer than in 2012. Male to female ratio was almost three to one (54,738 assaults among males; 21,156 assaults among females). Half of those injured were aged 18 to 30 years (37,280). Violence-related attendance at Emergency Departments was most frequent on Saturday and Sunday, over a week; and over a year least frequent in February and November.

The data was gathered from a sample of 117 EDs, MIUs and Walk-in Centres in England and Wales. All are certified members of the National Violence Surveillance Network (NVSN).

Lead author of the study and Director of the Violence and Society Research Group at Cardiff University, Professor Jonathan Shepherd said: “The data show another significant year on year fall in serious violence across England and Wales. Apart from a 7% increase in 2008, levels of serious violence have fallen every year since 2001.

“Violence is falling in many Western countries and we don’t know all the reasons why. In England and Wales, the growth of multi-agency violence prevention involving police, the NHS and local authorities may well be a factor; violence has fallen more in regions where this is best organised. Another probable explanation is changes in alcohol habits. Binge drinking has become less frequent, and the proportion of youth who don’t drink alcohol at all has risen sharply. Also, after decades in which alcohol has become more affordable, since 2008 it has become less affordable. For people most prone to involvement in violence, those aged 18-30, falls in disposable income are probably an important factor.

“Continuing, substantial decreases in serious violence are welcome for citizens, communities and in combatting the fear of crime. They also decrease the costs of violence to health services and the criminal justice system and reduce pressures on hard pressed A&Es late at night at the weekend.”

While the report authors say that the fall mirrors findings in general crime surveys and police recorded crime data, police records underestimate violence levels mainly because of lack of ascertainment reflecting low reporting rates which in turn, reflect fear of reprisals, inability to identify assailants, an unwillingness to have own conduct scrutinised and a perceived lack of benefit for the injured.

As for explaining the fall, the authors point out that the affordability of alcohol has decreased; the real price of alcohol in both the on-trade and off-trade has increased and UK alcohol consumption has decreased. For the report in full visit – http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/resource/12846.35244.file.eng.pdf

Serious violence affecting all age groups decreased in 2013 compared to 2012 including falls among youth (down 18 per cent); males and females (down 19.1pc and 14.1pc respectively) and young adults (down 14pc; males and females down 14.3pc and 13.3pc respectively). The findings confirmed the demographic that those most at risk of serious violence-related injury continue to be males aged 18 to 30.

For more visit the university’s website – http://www.cardiff.ac.uk/dentl/research/themes/appliedclinicalresearch/violenceandsociety/

ACPO comment

At the Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO), National Lead for Violence and Public Protection is Merseyside Deputy Chief Constable Andy Cooke. He said: “The University of Cardiff’s research shows a fall in violent crime that is mirrored in the Crime Survey of England and Wales and police recorded crime. While this fall reflects trends in other countries and it is likely to have been affected by a range of factors, it demonstrates the results of a continuous drive by the British police service to prevent and robustly tackle violent crime.

“Protecting the public from harm is the service’s utmost priority so chief constables have invested in tackling violence in all its forms, continuing to adapt and innovate to bring crime down even as budgets have reduced and the UK has faced austerity.

“Cultural changes in drinking habits have played a part as well as improved policing of town centres where binge drinking fuels crime and disorder. However, around 50 per cent of all violent crime is alcohol-related and excessive drinking is still a real drain on police resources.

“Concerted efforts and an evidence based approach to issues such as domestic violence, gun and knife crime has reduced violence. A focus on crime prevention, multi-agency working and neighbourhood policing have also had an impact.

“There’s far more for us to do. We know that crimes such as domestic abuse and rape are still under-reported; we want to encourage victims to report to us so that we can act to protect them and prevent offenders walking free, able to commit further harm.”

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