Anything other than a collective, comprehensive approach to combat the terrorist threat from chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons (CBRN) could be ‘dangerously self-delusory’ says a new report published in February by Chatham House.
Intelligence sources and public anxiety over a potential attack could lead policy-makers to focus on one main area of threat but this would only prompt terror groups to exploit other means and select other targets. The report, The CBRN System: Assessing the threat of terrorist use of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons in the UK, by Dr Paul Cornish of Chatham House, provides a detailed overview of what CBRN weapons are; what terrorists could do with CBRN, and why; and how serious the overall danger is. It argues that it is necessary to think of CBRN as one system of threats that offers all that might be required for a range of terrorist groups – from the largest to the smallest, from the almost casual to the most organised, and from the poorest to the best funded.
The report analyses the effect of potential attacks and concludes that terrorists – with perhaps more disregard for their own survival than we are used to – expect a targeted population to panic, thus magnifying the effect of the attack. Other than the terrible impact on those affected, in most cases the broader impact could be determined by the nature of the public reaction. A small-scale attack might conceivably trigger an immediate and disproportionately terrified response and policy-makers must ensure that the CBRN threat is understood by the public as well and as widely as possible.
What they say
Dr Paul Cornish said: “The head of MI5 warned recently of the threat of terrorist attacks in the UK, possibly using CBRN technologies and weapons. Terrorism is about acts of intimidation, murder and destruction, and it is also about the way the media and public opinion respond to such outrages. As the possibility of a CBRN attack looms ever larger, an informed public will play an increasingly important role in ensuring a proportionate and resilient response to terrorism.” The report concludes:
Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons (CBRN) should be treated as one system of threats;
Potential terrorists hope that the UK would be brittle in the face of a CBRN attack and that they would benefit from the ‘propaganda of the deed’; and
The government could counter a possible ‘demoralizing sense of defencelessness’ by ensuring that the public’s understanding of the issues is proportionate to the threat – both before and after any attack.
You can download the 40-page report:
