A post-covid surge in school absence risks creating young offenders if left unresolved, a think tank has warned.
Ssince schools were first shut due to the coronavirus pandemic in spring 2020, the numbers of persistently absent pupils – those missing more than 10 per cent of school time – rose to 32 per cent in 2022 among year 11 pupils, up from 16 per cent just before the pandemic. The number of persistently absent pupils rose by over 800,000 since 2019 to 1.7 million in autumn 2022. Department for Education and Ministry of Justice research analysed by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) finds persistently absent pupils to be more than three times as likely to commit an offence by aged 17 than pupils fully attending school.
The number of severely absent pupils – those missing more than half of their school time – has more than doubled since 2019. These pupils are disproportionately likely to be vulnerable and in desperate need of support, but are slipping through the net, with potentially lifelong consequences, the think tank says. The think tank estimates that there could be over 200,000 ‘severely absent’ among those projected to leave school in year 11 in 2025, a cohort that began secondary school just as lockdown was taking effect; if the rate remains at the current level of 32 per cent. The researchers say absence from school has a profound impact on individual life chances and incurs major costs to society, with absent pupils over-represented in the population leaving school not in education, training or employment (NEET).
The CSJ points to implications for crime, as pledges to build safer communities are expected to be a major battle ground at the next election. A failure to act urgently to address school absence carries a heavy price tag, the think tank estimates, with the expected surge in offending set to cost an extra £100 million for 2025 school leavers alone.
The Government has introduced some initiatives to tackle school absence. These include the publication of new attendance guidance and local attendance mentor pilots, offering some support to councils with higher rates of absence. Yet the guidance is non-statutory, leading to inconsistencies in how it is applied, and its local pilot of attendance mentor pilots will reach just one per cent of the 125,000 severely absent pupils at most, the CSJ adds.
The CSJ is calling on Government to radically upscale its response. It argues for a portion of the £114m underspend on the National Tutoring Programme beset by operational problems to be redirected to roll out attendance mentors nationally, getting the nation’s young people back into school.
Andy Cook, Chief Executive of the Centre for Social Justice, said: “Government needs to take absence seriously if we are to stop a lost generation of children suffering the consequences of lockdown for decades to come. Alongside stunting academic attainment, children with a history of school absence are three times more likely to commit an offence than those who routinely attend school.
“For the sake of these children’s future – and for the safety of our streets – government must stop tinkering around the edges and accelerate the national roll out of Attendance Mentors, ensuring all children benefit from an education that sets them up for life.”
