The message from the founder of an intelligence consultancy was so grim, let’s start with his one piece of good news for businesses.
That was at the very end of Justin Crump’s welcoming talk to the Vauxhall, London base of his company Sibylline. The occasion was their mid-year global forecast, a 74-page document that goes to their clients.
Justin, pictured, gave a digest to the audience. The worrying trends that he set out have been around for a while. The good news; if companies do things well, they will survive, even thrive; while bad companies will go under. The document called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine an ‘inflexion point’, and Justin spoke likewise. He did argue that the Russia-Ukraine war has yet to evolve into ‘hybrid warfare’; which does differ from the view of Microsoft featured last month, that Russia-Ukraine is indeed the first hybrid, cyber and physical, war. On cyber, the document warns that ransomware will remain a threat. Chapters discuss the world by regions.
Competitive advantage
But as clients pay for the insights in the document, let’s stay with what was free on the night; Justin’s talk. Besides, he does have a way with words. We have had the best of times; now business is more challenging. The risks aren’t theoretical any more; (Russia’s President) Putin and pandemic have affected people’s lives. If you can navigate your way through this stuff, Justin said, ‘you are going to have a competitive advantage. When it’s easy, everyone can win the race; when it’s hard, your ability to win the race counts.’
In other words, Justin’s consultancy (and others offering forecasting services) that offer advice on geopolitics and risk are more useful. And the evening was a chance to mix with Sibylline analysts and pick their brains over a drink. Like their 2022 prediction evening in December, this mid-year event fell after a quarterly meeting of ASIS UK, and some ASIS members did dash across town from one to the other.
More in the August 2022 print edition of Professional Security Magazine.
About the firm
Among its customers are defence firms, government departments and corporates. Sibylline also does podcasts. By joining the company’s mailing list you get invited to the annual and mid-year reports, weekly podcasts, and events. Visit https://www.sibylline.co.uk/.
