The UK Government has published its Integrated Review, a delayed statement of the country’s national security, defence and foreign and development policy. It sets objectives to 2025, to inform future policy-making for central government departments.
You can view the 111-page policy paper at gov.uk. It covers cyber and other resilience, borders (in terms of ‘an open international order’), counter terrorism and homeland security, ‘defending our democratic institutions and economy from state threats, terrorists and organised crime groups’.
In a foreword, Prime Minister Boris Johnson anticipated a new ‘Situation Centre at the heart of government, improving our use of data and our ability to anticipate and respond to future crises’. Among the promises are ‘the most effective border in the world by 2025′.
The PM said: “Open and democratic societies like the UK must demonstrate they are match-fit for a more competitive world.” On geopolitics, the document speaks of a ’15-year decline in democracy and pluralism’ continuing to 2030, ‘accelerated by covid-19. Tensions between democratic and authoritarian states are highly likely to become more pronounced, as authoritarian states seek to export their domestic models, undermine open societies and economies’. Cyberspace likewise will be ‘an increasingly contested domain’.
On terrorism, the Review sees ‘a realistic possibility that state sponsorship of terrorism and the use of proxies will increase. It is likely that a terrorist group will launch a successful CBRN attack by 2030’. On crime, the paper predicts that the scale and complexity of serious organised crime (SOC) is likely to increase, aided by new technologies, and SOC ‘will adapt to events faster than governments’.
And on security, the document says: “Ensuring security in today’s world involves a growing range of activities: from tackling threats from states and non-state actors such as terrorists and organised crime groups; to building societal resilience so that we are better able to withstand risks and unexpected shocks, including future environmental and global health emergencies.”
Comments
At the defence, security and aerospace trade association ADS, Chief Executive Paul Everitt said that industry is ready to work with the armed forces, security services and law enforcement agencies to equip them with the technology for national security and resilience. “Industry looks forward to publication of the Defence and Security Industrial Strategy next week to fully understand how delivery of the Government’s ambitions will support jobs and prosperity in all parts of the UK, and strengthen our international trade partnerships.
“Realising the UK’s ambition to become a true science and technology superpower can bring benefits across many sectors of the economy. It will require a strong partnership of Government, industry and academia to secure the rising R&D investment required.”
Dr Simon Harwood, Director of Defence and Security at Cranfield University, said: “This is an extraordinarily wide-ranging strategy going much further than a traditional defence review. If you’d have asked me, even 12 months ago, whether climate change would be featuring in a Government ‘defence and security’ strategy, I’d have said it was a low likelihood. But now, rightly, we see climate change and biodiversity being a key section of the review. We can’t have national security without climate security and this review recognises that.
“In my evidence to the House of Lords Risk Assessment and Risk Planning Committee, I spoke about the need to look at multiple threats and their interconnected nature. This review begins to frame threats not just as being ones based on external defence but on ‘homeland’ security as well.
“As ever, the true test will be in the implementation of the review and whether the siloed nature of Whitehall can be broken down and whether departments can collaborate to build resilience across threats that span their individual responsibilities.”
Dr Jamie Collier, Intelligence Analyst at Mandiant Threat Intelligence says: “The review has correctly identified that cyberspace is an increasingly contested domain. While the National Cyber Force signals a greater willingness to engage, it is encouraging that the language demonstrates there is still a focus on remaining a responsible player.”
Steve Forbes, Government Cyber Security Expert at internet registry Nominet said: “The UK’s ability to be a force for good in conducting offensive cyber operations to disrupt online aggressors is increasingly important as we continue to move all aspects of our lives online. With so much changing since the 2015 Strategic Defence and Security Review, it is paramount that as a society we have a robust and cutting edge approach to defending against high level nation-targeted attacks. Investment in ‘home grown’ cyber is a wise move.
“In positioning our country as a global digital leader for the future, it will be important to devise solutions that are adaptable as well as highly resilient and scalable; that both protect us from specific nefarious cyber activity and keep the entire UK safe online. The government’s plan to offer a full spectrum approach to cyber defence is crucial to this. A competitive UK is a secure UK.
“A chain is only as strong as its weakest link and as we move to bolster cyber defences the Government’s commitment to increased collaboration between them, academia and industry will be invaluable. As will international alliances. These joint efforts can provide information at scale that individual organisations and countries could perhaps never match on their own. From identifying new threats and where education needs to take place, through to technologies that can provide a broad foundation of security. The more we can pull together in our cyber defence, taking advantage of collective intelligence and counter defence, the stronger we will be.”
Matthew Connor, Senior Service Delivery Manager at cyber firm F-Secure said that a longstanding principle for nation state cyber operations is to avoid being caught; with the very best attacks being conducted without the victim ever knowing. “This makes the intelligence collected more valuable and retribution less likely. As their adversaries become more noisy – but impactful – the UK may have to leave its default clandestine position behind to keep up.
The Integrated Review is laden with contradictions, says International Development Committee chair, the Labour MP Sarah Champion. She says: “The Government explains that Africa will increasingly be left behind, that with a growing population Africa will be hit hardest with the impacts of climate change, poverty and conflict. Yet the UK’s international priorities are gearing towards the Indo-Pacific with presumably less development spend going to Africa. Setting a commitment to meet the 17 Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 is admirable, but excluding extreme poverty as a strategic objective for aid is bizarre.
“Delay after delay with the publication of the Integrated Review should have afforded the Government more time to consult stakeholders. The changes to the development sector last year – the merging of DFID and the FCO, the drastic aid cuts – should have been properly explored within the scope of the Integrated Review rather than rushed through. We cannot forget that these severe cuts are against a backdrop of increasing levels of violence, hospitals at breaking point, inequality and gender-based violence rising in some of the world’s poorest countries.”
