A well-functioning probation service can reduce the cost of reoffending to society, says the National Audit Office (NAO). However, the official auditor adds, available data show that, since unification of the Probation Service in June 2021, performance has worsened, with significant staffing shortfalls and high workloads, particularly for the Probation Officer grade.
HM Prison & Probation Service (HMPPS) increased its recruitment of probation staff in line with its plans, but in 2024 its internal analysis indicated that it had significantly underestimated the time needed for sentence management tasks. The Probation Service describes itself as unsustainable, according to an NAO report. It has made pragmatic decisions to deal with staffing shortfalls by reducing rehabilitative activity and supervision, but these have not sufficiently reduced PO workloads.
Gareth Davies, head of the NAO said: “Our Future Probation Service’ is a bold and innovative approach to increase resilience. The government must manage the risks associated with the programme to mitigate the impact on offenders’ chances of successfully rehabilitating in the community.”
In late 2024, HMPPS began developing its ‘Impact’ scheme to further alleviate pressures on staff, so that practitioners can spend more of their time with higher-risk offenders; it came into effect in April. In February 2025, HMPPS introduced a ‘prioritisation framework for accredited programmes’ (AcPs), which prioritised places for those who pose the highest risk of harm and reoffending. In July, the Service estimated it was 3,150 staff short out of a target of about 15,000 sentence management staff. The Service is looking, the NAO reported, to reduce its volume of work: ‘including reviewing who receives supervision and at what intensity’, including recommendations from the Independent Sentencing Review (ISR), by David Gawke, published in spring 2025, and due to be turned into law through the Sentencing Bill that is going through Parliament. And to increase productivity, the Service is looking at more use of artificial intelligence (AI), reallocating some work across grades, and expanding use of service centres.
You can read the 60-page report on the NAO website via this link: https://www.nao.org.uk/reports/building-an-effective-and-resilient-probation-service/.
Comment
For the trade union Unison, national officer for probation Ben Priestley said: “Probation staff have known for years the service is on its knees. It’s through no fault of the workforce, who’re doing all they can to protect the public and help people turn their lives around. It’s the result of a system that’s been stripped of local leadership and starved of investment.
“Government plans to expand community sentences will put even more pressure on probation workers, who already have unmanageable workloads. Ministers must honour their commitment to review the running of probation. That means taking the system out of the civil service and returning it to locally accountable bodies. Otherwise, the public will be put at greater risk and staff will continue to suffer.”
